The feeling of too many baseball games and too little time has returned, and it’s a glorious thing.
All four full-season minor league levels, MLB, college and high school baseball are in full swing. That means a month or two of overlapping games. In particular, we’re getting our first look at many minor league pitchers who might be pitching professionally for the first time, or showing off improved arsenals.
It’s important to take the time to see what pitchers may have changed and how they sequence their pitches. My goal with these check-ins is to examine a few interesting pitching prospects from one organization, then finish with thoughts and observations from around baseball.
The Mets are up first. Here’s what I’ve seen from a pair of high-helium pitching prospects Christian Scott and Brandon Sproat.
Christian Scott
Scott, the Mets’ No. 6 prospect, is generating a fair amount of buzz among Mets fans. He faced Charlotte, the White Sox Triple-A Affiliate, on Tuesday night, striking out seven batters while allowing two earned runs over 5.1 innings. The Knights’ home ballpark in downtown is one of the more beautiful backdrops of any park in baseball, but Charlotte is also incredibly home run happy. This park seemed like a fairly good test of Scott’s mettle. The automatic ball-strike system also called the game, making Scott’s margin for error smaller.
The first inning was tough. Scott struggled with fastball command, showing a control over command profile. He wasn’t missing the zone with the pitch, but wasn’t landing the pitch side-to-side or high enough for a chase swing above the zone (something he does well). He located a handful of fastballs well, particularly a high inside fastball to Colson Montgomery for a swinging strike three. However, he parked a few fastballs right down Main Street that Danny Mendick and Oscar Colas (two batters later) smashed for home runs.
— Syracuse Mets (@SyracuseMets) April 16, 2024Colson Montgomery is a top-10 prospect in baseball.
Christian Scott has struck him out swinging both times he's faced him tonight. pic.twitter.com/yoS9P2oa5B
Scott settled in as he navigated the bottom of the Knights order and the second time through the lineup. Scott showed two slider shapes in a hard gyro slider at 86-87 mph and a sweeper at 82-84 mph. He started to really mix up his sequencing, starting six of the next 10 batters with a non-fastball. He retired 12 of the next 13 batters he faced, striking out six.
There’s a difference between getting outs at Triple-A and success in the majors. Scott shows several good traits. He has a feel for a pair of breaking balls and a changeup. He isn’t afraid to mix up his sequencing. Scott will mix in right-right changeups and will show both slider shapes to lefthanded hitters in addition to the changeup.
Scott’s future performance is dictated by how well he locates his fastball up in the zone, and to both sides of the plate. When he lands his fastball early in counts, he has a variety of pitches to get hitters out. He’s an efficient strike-thrower with fastball velocity, some deceptive release traits from his low three quarters slot and feel for a trio of secondaries.
Brandon Sproat
The former Florida Gator was a longtime target of the Mets. They drafted Sproat in back to back years, finally signing him last summer in the second round. Sproat was the starter for High-A Brooklyn at Jersey Shore on April 16. The opposing Jersey Shore lineup features Top 100 prospect Justin Crawford and two other Phillies Top 10 prospects.
Quick aside: Jersey Shore is one of the better broadcasts in the High-A South Atlantic league. The announcers made a point to confirm the velocity in the scorebug is linked to Hawkeye.
Sproat went four innings and allowed just two well-hit balls all night. The righthander mixed two fastballs shapes in a four-seam and two-seam at 94-96 mph touching 99 mph at peak. The two-seam averaged 10 inches of IVB with 14 inches of horizontal break and looked like the better of the two shapes. Sproat commanded the two fastballs effectively and showed the ability to use them in tandem.
Sproat mixed a trio of breaking ball shapes throughout in a high-80s cutter, low-80s curveball and a mid-80s slurvy slider. The hard cutter was his primary secondary and he used it effectively as a change of pace off the fastballs. His curveball was a chase pitch, but Jersey Shore hitters weren’t fooled. It drove zero swings and misses across six pitches.
While Sproat’s stuff is solid, he struggled to find a putaway pitch. He generated nine swinging strikes and seven were against fastballs. His struggles to land the curveball this day likely contributed to some of that. He wasn’t really challenging hitters to chase it. Sproat did show the ability to attack both sides of the plate with his fastball. He was still effective with the pitch even after his velocity dropped down in the fourth inning.
Sproat gave up a home run to the first batter of the fourth after he hung a breaking ball over the middle of the plate. Outside of that, Sproat made few mistakes throughout the outing. He did make an errant throw to first on a pickoff move. Sproat showed the ability to consistently get into two-strike counts, hinting that when his curveball is on he’s capable of racking up the strikeouts. His pitchability showed throughout this outing. It was clear, though, his stuff starts to wane the second time through the order.
Other Musings From Around The Baseball Universe
Could Chase Burns pitch in a big league bullpen right now?
I had an opportunity to see top draft prospect Chase Burns last Friday against Boston College. The stuff is really impressive. Burns sat 96-97 mph touching 99 mph and showed a nasty slider that can best be described as a left turn at 90 mph. Burns showed a solid changeup and curveball as well.
While there’s no doubting Burns swing and miss stuff, many scouts present at this start poised the question: could he pitch out of a big league bullpen, now?
It’s a valid question. But one concern I’ve heard—which also shows up on tape—is whether MLB hitters would bite at the sliders Burnes is getting whiffs on right now. It’s a reasonable question any time these statements are made about an amateur. Regardless, Burns is an easy top of the draft arm that is likely to slot right into the Top 100.
Thinking about how we evaluate hitters…
Over the last couple of weeks I’ve been thinking more and more about how to evaluate hitters and their performance against certain pitch types. It’s a difficult thing to really understand the nuance of unless you’ve looked at a good sample on video and have per-pitch type data beyond just slashline stats and swings and misses. I would argue you need advanced data and a good understanding of swing paths. Every swing has holes, it’s simply a matter of hitters showing the ability to adjust. It’s not as much if they hit it, but going beyond that to see how they hit it.
The James Wood archetype takes off
James Wood is currently making a great case for the big, powerful athletic prospect. In recent years, we’ve seen more and more high-end positional prospects standing 6-foot-5 or taller enter the game. Spencer Jones (Yankees), Bryce Eldridge (Giants) and Coby Mayo (Orioles) are all examples of tall positional prospects that showed out in their pre-draft athletic testing and force plate data. Athletic testing is the next frontier when it comes to evaluating amateurs. It’s already been a part of the process for many organizations. While skills are still as important as ever, getting a measure of a player’s physical capacity for power and explosiveness is important. In the latest edition of what’s old is new again, teams are betting on the athlete.
Benefitting from Hawkeye data
While it can lead to some sloppy analysis from time to time, the availability of Statcast data for Triple-A and the Florida State League has been a blessing. We now have the ability to get a good measure of minor league data to contrast with major league data in a tangible way. While Trackman is available at nearly every minor league park, the Triple-A and (most of) the Florida State league parks are outfitted with Hawkeye. As someone who’s spent a few weeks of his life nosing through minor league Trackman data, I appreciate Hawkeye’s consistency on induced vertical break numbers. It allows us to set realistic expectations about what a player can and can’t do. Over the last few years, the IVB numbers from the Texas and Eastern League did not jive with the Hawkeye measurements of the same players throughout the season.
The injury bug bites the Brewers
The Brewers have had some terrible luck in the minors over the opening weeks of the season. They’ve dealt with a string of really unfortunate injuries to several of their Top 30 prospects. Catcher Jeferson Quero suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder. He’ll miss up to nine months as he recovers from surgery to this throwing shoulder. Then Brock Wilken, the Brewers’ 2023 first-round pick, was struck in the face and suffered multiple facial fractures. Wilken will miss some time as he recovers from facial surgery. Other injuries of note: 2023 sixth-rounder Cooper Pratt broke his pinkie last week and 2023 fifth-rounder Ryan Birchard is dealing with an oblique injury.
