At a Glance
- Multiple forecast teams expect a very active 2024 hurricane season ahead.
- Two of those teams have brought up recent years as potential analogs to what may happen this year.
- That's partially based on a transition toward La Niña, which usually enhances activity.
- However, off-the-charts warm tropical Atlantic water is a significant wild card this year.
- Secondly, Atlantic Ocean water is record-warm in most areas, which also could enhance storms.
Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be very active, and may bear some resemblance to some recent years, according to a pair of forecasts.
Both Colorado State University and the Atmospheric G2/The Weather Company outlooks are forecasting about two dozen storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes. That's the most aggressive April outlooks from each forecast team in their history.
Analog years: Both CSU and AG2/TWC, as well as other forecast entities, often look for years that have similar conditions to those expected this year. While every hurricane season is different, examining these analog years can give meteorologists an overall view of what the season may look like and is a staple of extended forecasts.
For 2024, the forecast teams selected recent analog years that each featured a transition to La Niña, a periodic cooling of equatorial Pacific ocean water that typically results in a more active season. Among these years, let's examine those within the last few decades to see what they delivered.
1998: A quick transition from a super El Niño the previous winter to a moderate La Niña was one factor in 1998. While there were only 14 storms, 10 of those became hurricanes. Three of those - Bonnie, Earl and Georges - made U.S. landfall. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch eventually stalled near Honduras, producing deadly and devastating flooding in Central America.
2010: Similar to 1998, there was also a transition from a strong winter El Niño to La Niña by this hurricane season. And 2010 also delivered a high number of hurricanes (12). But as you can see in the map below, all those hurricanes avoided the East Coast. However, Alex did have some peripheral impacts in South Texas, and Earl did pass just close enough to generate significant storm surge flooding in North Carolina's Outer Banks.
2016: This hurricane season, once again with La Niña following a super El Niño winter, had rather average numbers. But two of the seven hurricanes - Hermine, then Matthew - made U.S. landfall. Otto was a bizarre Thanksgiving landfall near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border.
2020: Yeesh. 2020 had a record number of storms (30), second most hurricanes (14) and a record number of U.S. landfalling storms (11) among its many superlatives. Ten of those storms underwent rapid intensification, defined as an increase in winds of 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less. While it didn't follow an El Niño, a moderate La Niña did develop by the heart of this hurricane season, which took place during the worsening COVID-19 pandemic, no less.
The major wild card: While the El Niño to La Niña transition is forecast as in past analog seasons, the magnitude of warmth in the Atlantic Ocean remains off the charts for this time of year.
University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy noted the North Atlantic Ocean has been setting daily warm records for over a year straight.
If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become. How warm Atlantic Basin water temperatures are in early spring correlate to a hurricane season's activity.
Record warm water offset 2023's El Niño: One year ago, seasonal forecasts were much lower, due to conflicting signals between a developing El Niño that typically suppresses hurricanes and the record warm ocean water that boosts them.
Advertisem*nt
Despite the developing El Niño, 20 storms formed, six more than average. Seven of those became hurricanes, equal to an average season. As weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Belles put it, it was "an El Niño that didn't matter."
What could happen this season: Now imagine the only potential factor that could pump the brakes - El Niño - gone by this hurricane season, replaced by its opposite that typically boosts hurricane formation. That's the reason these early-season predictions are so hyperactive.
Furthermore, as we discussed in a previous piece, that may also mean a bigger landfall threat, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea.
With apologies to Idalia-affected parts of Florida's Big Bend last year, we may not be as lucky regarding hurricane landfalls this season.
2024 could end up looking similar to 2020 or a somewhat more active version of 1998.
Prepare the same every season: Despite all this, these seasonal outlooks cannot say whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.
These outlooks don't guarantee a high-impact season. It simply means the odds are higher.
It also doesn't take a hurricane to be impactful, especially regarding rainfall flooding.
Prepare for every hurricane season in case this is the one your area takes a hit. Information about hurricane preparedness can be found here.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM:
- 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook
- How This Outlook Compares To Busiest Seasons On Record
- 2023 Hurricane Season Recap
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.
